大可意念：技術商品化專題演講

工業設計師的工作在本質上是與工程師非常相似的。兩者都汲汲於提高產品本身的價值，只是工程師專注於功能性，工業設計師則想辦法創造使用者感動的瞬間。這次交通大學智慧財產權中心邀請「大可意念」針對技術商品化一題發表演講，原本期待大可意念這邊可以就技術商品化的完整流程做一經驗分享，可惜整場演講變成了大可意念的自我宣傳以及作品展示。

或許，從設計的角度來暢談技術商品化有其難度，硬要設計人歸納出一套標準作業流程，似乎也欠缺公允，理性與感性本就該各自獨立、各司其質，重點在如何調和這兩者以產生令人感動的產品。演講人說明國際品牌塑造絕對需要好的設計力，亦有誇大之嫌。設計力在商品化的流程中的確扮演著極為重要且不可缺少的環節，但是充其量也不過是諸多環節之一。商品本身的技術成熟度、行銷手法和國際能見度等細節皆需到位，才能誕生一件成功的商品，而品牌則需時透過經年累月不間斷的行銷和系列產品所建立的消費者形象來建構。縱使某商品獲得 IF 或 紅點等國際設計大獎，若公司本身無法擬定正確的行銷策略，也是徒然。這是兩個不同的面向，不可混為一談。

另外，大可意念居然對其設計服務自我設限，也是不可置信的舉動。演講人在分享中展示了一張商品成熟週期圖表，說明大可意念所專注的範圍在於如何為已達成熟期的商品創造另一波高峰，甚至，還說明希望與有能力制訂規格的廠商合作，以減低合作專案的失敗率。種種的論述十分不可思議。起初，我想這或許就是設計人特有的高傲感吧！可是我想到了一個反證：蘋果電腦在推出其產品時，絕非等到成熟期才投入大量的設計資源，看看他們的麥金塔、ipod 和 iphone，都是初入市場時就已具備成熟的設計展現。

在下認為，設計力對於一家以實體產品為利基的公司企業是必須具備的能力，然而，如果想要形塑出自我品牌並提高國際能見度，必須能將公司本身的核心價值和理念充分反應到所有產品上，並維持某部分的一致性，如此一來品牌本身的魅力才會逐漸深植消費者心目中。因此，在公司內部建立工業設計部門絕對是最佳的作法，而非將各個時期推出的商品發包給外部設計公司代為操刀。寧可顧全品牌的一致性，也不願無謂的追求單一產品獲得國際設計大獎。不過，對於政府研究單位或學術機構，倒是可以鼓勵與外部設計公司合作來提高作品本身的話題性，因為產品與產品之間不需要建構出相關性和統一風格。

結語：我想，蘋果之所以能為蘋果，而大可意念之所以能為大可意念，不外乎如此吧！

補充國際四大工業設計獎項（iF, red dot, G-Mark and IDEA）：

清華大學經濟學系院士演講: Asia Currency Unit

在五月二十六日晚上，清華大學經濟學系邀請到中央研究院的段錦泉院士以他所構想的「Asia Currency Unit」為題發表演講。整場演講分為以下幾個主要部分：

1. Alternative US Dollar
2. Example of Monetary Unit
3. Challenges of Monetary Unit
4. A world currency is not desirable or practical
5. A practical ACU model
6. Conclusion

以下整理上述各部分核心重點：

• Alternative US Dollar
  美元的強勢地位自二戰以來一直維持不變，然此一現象對於亞洲、甚至於世界經濟的健全有著極為負面的影響。以最近發生的經濟危機來說，當美國發生消費力衰退的狀況，理所當然會衝擊到亞洲各國以出口為導向的經濟體，使得商業獲利能力下滑。但更為憂心的是，這些經濟體或國家以往因出口所累積的外匯存底或所投資及持有的美國公債之實際價值，也因為此次經濟危機大幅下跌。簡言之，美國是亞洲各大經濟體的最大買家，但同時也是最大借款人，此利益架構本身就是有著極高衝突性和風險，使得亞洲各大出口國在經濟危機下面臨腹背受敵的雙重打擊。
  另外，段院士提到美元的影響力已經遠超過美國經濟體所帶來的影響力。在美國經濟疲弱不振的狀況下，如果亞洲各國還以美元當作國際交易的基準貨幣，勢必會被美國本身顛波的經濟狀況所拖累，所以應該另尋一貨幣體制來取代美元的角色。
  
  
• Example of Monetary Unit
  欲取代美元的強勢地位，統合亞洲各國的貨幣成為單一的「亞元（Asia Currency Unit）」於是被提出。類似的例子已在歐洲被實現，就是歐盟的歐元（Euro）。然而，亞洲的多元政治背景和不穩定局勢並無法為亞元提供一個穩定的平台，因此將亞元循歐洲模式建構成Monetary Unit ，其成功性令人質疑，也會面臨諸多的挑戰。
  
  
• Challenges of Monetary Unit
  以歐盟作為參考對象，為了建構單一的 Monetary Unit，必須統合歐盟境內各國的經融體系和貨幣政策，同時成立一個中央銀行負責大歐洲區的經濟調控和歐元貨幣政策。然而，貨幣政策是各國央行刺激經濟成長或壓抑經濟過熱，也是控制利率的好工具，如果各國喪失了這個工具，且必須遵從大中央銀行的統一政策，則勢必會造成地方性的經濟問題。歐盟各國經由多年的適應和調整，以及其會員國在文化和政治觀念上的相近背景，才能形成今日的整合經濟體。同樣的模式在亞洲的可行性極低，甚至幾乎不可能實作，因為亞洲各國不可能放棄自身的貨幣政策自主權。
  段院士同時以阿拉伯地區欲成立 Gulf 聯盟為例，光是為了決定 Gulf 的中央銀行所在地都無法形成共識，何況是政治角力更為激烈的亞洲地區。
  
  
• A World currency is not desirable or practical
  在今年於英國舉行的 G20 峰會，中國中央銀行主席周小川提出新世界貨幣的構想，呼籲放棄美元，並利用既有的 IMF 機制推行新的世界貨幣。段院士認為中國此一動作是純粹的政治目的，主要是為了削弱美國在談判桌上的氣勢，並無真正推動的意圖。世界貨幣除了有著前述 Monetary Unit 的相同挑戰外，也沒有任何一當前的組織可作為統籌機構：UN並非真正的 Supernation，而 IMF 也無法擔任世界中央銀行的角色。
  參考資料：Optimum Currency Area (OCA) by Mundell & McKinnon，以及 Currency Devaluation/Valuation。
  
  
• A practial ACU model
  一個務實的亞元機制將有助亞洲擺脫美元強勢經濟的影響，並解除與美元的過度依賴關係。觀察從 1980 年代至 2007 年亞洲 Intraregional Trade 佔 World Total Trade 的比重，即可發現亞洲區域已榮登世界交易中心（自 1980 年的 37% 到 2007 年的 54%，已超過世界總交易量的一半，參考自 IMF 調查報告）。這裡所倡議的亞元並非另一個 Monetary Unit，而是一個 Parallel Currency（Dual currency system），在 ACU Development Bank 的主導下，它應具備以下特質：
  
  
  1. 可作為交易使用。
  2. 可作為儲蓄使用。
  3. 不同於 Euro，ACU本身為獨立貨幣單位，可由任意兩國簽訂互相擔保合約而成立，並於合約中明訂擔保貨幣的比重。
  4. 不發行實際貨幣，僅以電子方式運作。
  5. 因為 (3) 的效益，使得 ACU 本身可成為 AAA 級的公債並作為投資標的。
     
  
  
• Conclusion
  避免以 Monetary Unit 的模式，改以一更為彈性的折衷方案來推動務實的 ACU 是段院士在這場演講的主軸。

感想：
段院士的 ACU 理念非常新穎，金融市場上從未有過類似的 Currency 架構，就其理論來說，的確提供了一個在亞洲地區實行亞元的方案。然而，在其理想架構下的 ACU Development Bank 和 Euro Central Bank 在實際運作上究竟有何不同，並無法從段院士的演講中獲得進一步解答，希望日後能有機會能獲得釐清。

延伸閱讀：彭淮南的亞元倡議之說

東吳大學 Personal Finance 學術研討會

五月二十五日於東吳大學所舉辦的 Personal Finance 學術研討會，請到了美國密蘇里大學的 Tansel Yilmazer 教授就其學術論文「The Impact of College Financial Aid Rules on Household Portfolio Choice」以及近年來她參與的學術活動和專案進行經驗分享，同時也為與會者介紹密蘇里大學個人財務規劃學系的教學環境。

前半段的演講內容聚焦在「The Impact of College Financial Aid Rules on Household Portfolio Choice」學術論文上，意在指出當前美國助學貸款機制的缺陷。在美國，貸款的申貸程序（Loan Processing）分成三大步驟：一、申請階段（Application Stage）。二、核准（Approvement）。三、利率訂定階段（Rate Determining）。他提到，當前美國民眾的儲蓄動機不外乎有二：退休後的生活資金以及子女的教育費用，而目美國聯邦政府計算學生助學貸款利率的規定對這些父母的個人財務規劃造成了重大的影響，同時也突顯了助學貸款機制本身的缺陷和不公平性。這個缺陷肇因於助學貸款利率的計算和審核方式並未包括退休金帳戶以及房屋財產，使得富裕的家庭反而可以透過將資金轉投資至退休金帳戶或房屋市場的方式，來降低一般銀行帳戶的帳面資金餘額，以取得較低的子女助學貸款利率（甚至低於低收入戶的助學貸款利率），因此造成了助學貸款利率計算機制的不公平現象。

透過 Tansel 教授的演講得知此一狀況後，我認為，美國聯邦政府的助學金貸款利率計算及審核政策造成了個人消費性金融產業蓬勃的發展，並誘使大眾將資金轉往退休金帳戶或房市，此舉對美國人民來說是好是壞，各有不同的解釋方向，但對於個人消費性金融產業的從業者來說，這算是相當大的利基點，可藉此針對中產階級進行相關金融產品的推銷和販售。這也充分說明了政府的政策對於商業環境來說具有舉足輕重的影響，必須給予相當的觀察分析和重視。

在演講的後半段，Tansel 教授分享了他在母國土耳其進行個人消費習慣抽樣調查以建立個人消費金融統計資料庫的經驗，以及密蘇里大學個人財務規劃學系的課程安排和教學系統。

「洞悉交替，引領未來」產業趨勢講座後記

在這場三小時的專題演講中，前德記洋行總裁、麥肯錫顧問熊震寰先生以策略性思考的角度，闡述了企業面臨當前經濟危機時所應有之作為。

在前半段時間，熊震寰先生以深入簡出的方式，帶領與會人員追溯整個經濟危機的成因和演變，同時點出策略性思考的真正著眼點。這段談話沒有高深莫測的分析或預測，只有精粹的核心觀念，並強調對問題認知的不同，會讓之後的策略性思考產生南轅北轍的結果，因此正確的觀察及思考角度甚為重要，而深入的檢視歷史資訊則是企業建立（或修正）觀察及思考角度的不二法門。

在演講後半段，熊震寰先生點出了企業在面對艱困時局時所應採行的策略行為。個人對此部分的演講內容十分認同，因為演講內容中所提出的策略措施，皆與我服務公司趨勢科技近年來的各項政策和行動不謀而合。之前對於公司的決策和商業行動僅止於表象的觀察，對於其背後的思考邏輯和依據並無深刻的體認，今次有幸透過熊震寰先生的演講而有醍醐灌頂之效，也為我的 GMBA 學生生涯做了最好的開場。

If Google sunk then nobody would survive

Google occupy allmost all resources on Internet. If Google went down someday, the consequent would be far beyond your imagination.

Yesterday night, an outage happened in many Google services and caused connection problem to many global users. For normal individuals, they usually think that the worst case is to wait for several hours. However it is not truth. Many online services or company official websites, either more or less, affected by the accident and demonstrated some problems on their websites. The reason behind this situation is that too many websites adopted at least one Google function in their service. For example, Many online forums and personal blogs use Google Ads to make some profit. And because of embedded Google Ads on their web page, the Internet users who visited their websites would probably face longer time or no response situation due to outage trouble. So the actual damage was hard to estimate and must be higher then that was announced in official report.

The most terrible things is, many crucial services or websites have deeply leverage with Google, which enlarges the potential risk if Google was breakdown. A website of a bank in United States which uses Google Analytic service to monitor network status was pulled down and had a time-consuming problem to display its web content when users try to access it last night, demonstrating that the powerful influence of Google has extended to many business applications as well.

Simply say: If Google sunk then nobody would survive.

What Google did is definitely a monopoly on Internet but nobody would like to object such development even the government of United States. Why? Perhaps US government think it is the best way to maintain the Internet advantage for United States.

Android vs WM, iPhone out!

Don't doubt my title. It's my prediction for the mobile market next year and YES, iPhone will be knocked out from the market. Why? you may ask. iPhone is so popular right now and most people favor its fancy and smooth UI a lot. It is hard to believe Apple will lose the support from its clients. However, the current situation looks familiar to me. It just likes the famous historical battle between Apple and IBM PC long time ago but Apple faces a new competitor this time, Google Android.

A good stock share predictor won't follow how majority said, he will monitor latest trend and forecast the future by their own analysis. So what I am doing here is trying to forget all the comments made by loyal fans of Apple (Actually I think they are already anesthetized by psychedelic Apple mark) and use some statistic data to make a reasonable evaluation.

Basically, Apple does not learn from its history. They did a bad job when they were facing IBM PC army and lost the battle due to their closed standard. Now they adopt the same strategy again in iPhone. If they want to extend the life of iPhone, they should not only release the SDK for developers but also open the source code of iPhone OS. In my eyes, Android means another IBM PC army and Apple is doomed to face its failure once more despite the tons apps in their online store and many fans they attracted. I believe their advantages and superiority will be eroded inch by inch.

Within only one season, 2008 Q4, Android phone even captured 4% US market share with only one pioneering device, HTC G1, and in the time of hard economic situation. It's hard to image how much market share that Android could take over in the near future because what they could get is probably an amazing one. I should make a bold prediction that Android will replace iPhone position at the end of 2010 and confront the WM directly in 2011. We will witness it happens!

One of the most successful media franchise: Star Trek

"to boldly go where no man has gone before", is the famous slogan of Star Trek episodes. This month, a new movie with the original name "Star Trek" would try to capture all the trekkers once more. Debuted in 1966, Star Trek episodes were credit with a perfect reflection of contemporary human society such as racism, religion, sexism, feminism and human rights, having a totally different view which emphasized future government and society evolution comparing to the other famous science fiction movie, Star War.

Beside the fiction story stimulating our imagination to the future, Star Trek also brought up some ideas about ideal human society and technologies. The United Federation of Planets in Star Trek represents the model civilization in cosmic space. Basically, it is the Utopia of mankind and was injected with many American values. And after almost 40 years later, its story and adventure spirit behind the scenes still fascinate many people.

The episodes evolved to many different series since the premier edition. However, the television channels in Taiwan have not introduced any new series since "Star Trek: The Next Generation" series, which is a pity to all fans. It is why the most of Trekkers in Taiwan are not familiar with the latest characters showed up in "Deep Space Nine", "voyager" and "Enterprise" series. For aged fans, boldly Kirk, smart Spock and nervous Dr. "Bones" McCoy are always legendary and un-replaceable. As for young fans, they probably love captain "Picard" and Data instead due to their era. Now, its time for these new generations to know what is true legend and what is the real meaning of "Star Trek" by the new movie.

Autodesk ObjectARX

Like any professional software, AutoCAD, the famous 3D modeling software developing by Autodesk Inc., provides APIs support for developers who want to make contribution on this platform. They named the APIs "Autodesk ObjectARX". Unfortunately, there is no any published book talking about this subject in Madarin Chinese. For developers in Taiwan, it seems the only way to gather information and technical resources is visiting the official website of autodesk.

As a software developer with over 3 years experience in Microsoft .NET solution, I am pleased that Autodesk made "ObjectARX" intergate with .NET framework. And here are some relevant links:

1. Developer center of AutoCAD
2. SDK download
3. ObjectARX

Happy learning!

Google is building a network

For many investors, Google represented a company which collects tons of genius engineers and produces many creativites. However, how to transfer these cool services into business profit was a big question. By continuously launching cross services API and cooperating with third party hardware device manufacturers, Google now shows his true ambition and strong combat ability. I can say it is obviously that Google will knock out Apple and Microsoft within next 10 years.

Google provided tons of free online services from video sharing platform, the YouTube, to geographic social platform, the Latitude. Moreover, it extended the battle field into hardware device. Google's smart move was step in mobile phone market with its open source operation system Andriod which immediately attracted many curious developers around the world to contribute more fantastic software applications to it. Different from the Apple iPhone and the Microsoft SmartPhone, developers could touch the system core direclty with no boundary.

Each time that Google intersects two of its services brings out enormous positive response and potential business profit. With such tempo and progress, the growing rate of Google is just like a geometric prograssion and it seems nobody could stop it. Recently, Google gave us another amazing service called Google Power Meter which could record, moniter and analyse the power consumption of your eletricities in real time. It seems that in the future, we would give more and more personal information and privacy to Google and let it control our normal life! For more details about Google Power Meter, check the news report below:

Kiva, a online platform for Microfinance Institutions

In order to support the poor people in developing countries around the world, many microfinance institutions have been established. Different from the massive banks or global financial organizations, microfinance institutions are usually local and only provide small loan to poor people.

I guess the most people have the same experience with me, heard about "microfinance institution" this words due to a news about the banker "Muhammad Yunus". He advocated the concept of microloan and hope it could help more people out of poverty in his country, which successfully gave rise to the attention from public. Such institutions focus on local region, accept requests from poor people and did not seek for high profit. Of course, to maintain and keep organization running needs a basic level of profit but they do their best to keep the balance by offering low interest rate to their loan.

You may ask: is it high risky to lend money to poor people? Microfinance Institutions do not supply their loan without any condition. They have their way to judge the status of each case and try to avoid any potential risk. Whatever, The idea of microfiance institution is very cool and would make our world better. The question is how do we encourage more establishment of microfiance institutions in our world? For example, people like us who have limited capital but would like to involve themselves into this field, they probably don't have enough fund to support the operation.

What if there is a online platform for these microfinance institutions to gather fund from Internet users? The only thing they need to do is to reveal the accommodator brief backgound they have on the web platform and wait for the funding from Internet users. The role of Internet users is a kind of philanthropist. The interest guarantee for them is 0%. However, all funding activities would be recorded and published on the web pages to honor their contribution. For microfinance institutions, they still offer the low interest rate loan to poor people when they receive funding from Internet users but have responsibility to monitor borrower's repayment and notice the Internet users who provide the fund. Although there are still some conditions for microfinance institutions which want to coorperate with this web platform, it is comparatively heavily reduce the finance barrier for them to operate. Sounds great right? That's Kiva! A truely social enterprise based on web 2.0 concept.

What are we waiting for? lets do our best to make this world better!


PS.

If you are not familiar with Enlgish and only want to focus on Taiwan region, there is another option for you to join social activities or involve yourself into social enterprise:

1. Flow, Inc., founded by Steve Chang, Chairman of Trend Micro, Inc., and Tom Wang, the famours writer in Taiwan. Their goal is to fund valuable social enterprise project in Taiwan.
2. Public welfare 2.0, established by online jobs service "104" in Taiwan. A very similar one to Kiva but only allows Internet users to donate.