「洞悉交替，引領未來」產業趨勢講座後記

在這場三小時的專題演講中，前德記洋行總裁、麥肯錫顧問熊震寰先生以策略性思考的角度，闡述了企業面臨當前經濟危機時所應有之作為。

在前半段時間，熊震寰先生以深入簡出的方式，帶領與會人員追溯整個經濟危機的成因和演變，同時點出策略性思考的真正著眼點。這段談話沒有高深莫測的分析或預測，只有精粹的核心觀念，並強調對問題認知的不同，會讓之後的策略性思考產生南轅北轍的結果，因此正確的觀察及思考角度甚為重要，而深入的檢視歷史資訊則是企業建立（或修正）觀察及思考角度的不二法門。

在演講後半段，熊震寰先生點出了企業在面對艱困時局時所應採行的策略行為。個人對此部分的演講內容十分認同，因為演講內容中所提出的策略措施，皆與我服務公司趨勢科技近年來的各項政策和行動不謀而合。之前對於公司的決策和商業行動僅止於表象的觀察，對於其背後的思考邏輯和依據並無深刻的體認，今次有幸透過熊震寰先生的演講而有醍醐灌頂之效，也為我的 GMBA 學生生涯做了最好的開場。

If Google sunk then nobody would survive

Google occupy allmost all resources on Internet. If Google went down someday, the consequent would be far beyond your imagination.

Yesterday night, an outage happened in many Google services and caused connection problem to many global users. For normal individuals, they usually think that the worst case is to wait for several hours. However it is not truth. Many online services or company official websites, either more or less, affected by the accident and demonstrated some problems on their websites. The reason behind this situation is that too many websites adopted at least one Google function in their service. For example, Many online forums and personal blogs use Google Ads to make some profit. And because of embedded Google Ads on their web page, the Internet users who visited their websites would probably face longer time or no response situation due to outage trouble. So the actual damage was hard to estimate and must be higher then that was announced in official report.

The most terrible things is, many crucial services or websites have deeply leverage with Google, which enlarges the potential risk if Google was breakdown. A website of a bank in United States which uses Google Analytic service to monitor network status was pulled down and had a time-consuming problem to display its web content when users try to access it last night, demonstrating that the powerful influence of Google has extended to many business applications as well.

Simply say: If Google sunk then nobody would survive.

What Google did is definitely a monopoly on Internet but nobody would like to object such development even the government of United States. Why? Perhaps US government think it is the best way to maintain the Internet advantage for United States.

Android vs WM, iPhone out!

Don't doubt my title. It's my prediction for the mobile market next year and YES, iPhone will be knocked out from the market. Why? you may ask. iPhone is so popular right now and most people favor its fancy and smooth UI a lot. It is hard to believe Apple will lose the support from its clients. However, the current situation looks familiar to me. It just likes the famous historical battle between Apple and IBM PC long time ago but Apple faces a new competitor this time, Google Android.

A good stock share predictor won't follow how majority said, he will monitor latest trend and forecast the future by their own analysis. So what I am doing here is trying to forget all the comments made by loyal fans of Apple (Actually I think they are already anesthetized by psychedelic Apple mark) and use some statistic data to make a reasonable evaluation.

Basically, Apple does not learn from its history. They did a bad job when they were facing IBM PC army and lost the battle due to their closed standard. Now they adopt the same strategy again in iPhone. If they want to extend the life of iPhone, they should not only release the SDK for developers but also open the source code of iPhone OS. In my eyes, Android means another IBM PC army and Apple is doomed to face its failure once more despite the tons apps in their online store and many fans they attracted. I believe their advantages and superiority will be eroded inch by inch.

Within only one season, 2008 Q4, Android phone even captured 4% US market share with only one pioneering device, HTC G1, and in the time of hard economic situation. It's hard to image how much market share that Android could take over in the near future because what they could get is probably an amazing one. I should make a bold prediction that Android will replace iPhone position at the end of 2010 and confront the WM directly in 2011. We will witness it happens!

One of the most successful media franchise: Star Trek

"to boldly go where no man has gone before", is the famous slogan of Star Trek episodes. This month, a new movie with the original name "Star Trek" would try to capture all the trekkers once more. Debuted in 1966, Star Trek episodes were credit with a perfect reflection of contemporary human society such as racism, religion, sexism, feminism and human rights, having a totally different view which emphasized future government and society evolution comparing to the other famous science fiction movie, Star War.

Beside the fiction story stimulating our imagination to the future, Star Trek also brought up some ideas about ideal human society and technologies. The United Federation of Planets in Star Trek represents the model civilization in cosmic space. Basically, it is the Utopia of mankind and was injected with many American values. And after almost 40 years later, its story and adventure spirit behind the scenes still fascinate many people.

The episodes evolved to many different series since the premier edition. However, the television channels in Taiwan have not introduced any new series since "Star Trek: The Next Generation" series, which is a pity to all fans. It is why the most of Trekkers in Taiwan are not familiar with the latest characters showed up in "Deep Space Nine", "voyager" and "Enterprise" series. For aged fans, boldly Kirk, smart Spock and nervous Dr. "Bones" McCoy are always legendary and un-replaceable. As for young fans, they probably love captain "Picard" and Data instead due to their era. Now, its time for these new generations to know what is true legend and what is the real meaning of "Star Trek" by the new movie.